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Down 34% Last Month, Should You Buy BioNTech Stock For Near-Term Gains?

BioNTech (NASDAQ: BNTX), a leader in messenger RNA technology and Pfizer’s Covid-19 vaccine partner, saw its stock price decline by almost 34% over the last month, considerably underperforming the S&P 500 which remained roughly flat over the same period. There have been a couple of recent developments that hurt the stock. Firstly, the FDA’s recent approval of booster Covid-19 shots in September was limited to certain subgroups of the population, including high-risk individuals and people age 65 years and older, and not for broader use as the markets were expecting. Separately, pharma major Merck provided encouraging interim updates on its experimental oral Covid-19 drug, molnupiravir earlier this month, indicating that it cut the risk of hospitalization or death by 50% for patients with mild-to-moderate Covid-19. Although we think that vaccines will remain the primary defense against Covid-19 infection, highly effective treatment for the disease could make people less inclined to get inoculated and this could also reduce the need for booster doses of vaccines.

Now, is BNTX stock poised to grow? Based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last two years, there is a strong chance of a rise in BNTX stock over the next month (twenty-one trading days). See our analysis on BioNTech Stock Chance Of Rise for more details.

Five Days: BNTX 0.7%, vs. S&P500 1.8%; Underperformed market

(56% event probability)

  • BioNTech stock rose 0.7% over a five day trading period ending 10/15/2021, compared to the broader market (S&P500) which rose by 1.8%
  • A change of 0.7% or more over five trading days has a 56% event probability, which has occurred 284 times out of 503 in the last two years.

Ten Days: BNTX -2.8%, vs. S&P500 2.7%; Underperformed market

(32% event probability)

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  • BioNTech stock declined -2.8% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to the broader market (S&P500) which rose by 2.7%
  • A change of -2.8% or more over ten trading days has a 32% event probability, which has occurred 161 times out of 498 in the last two years.

Twenty-One Days: BNTX -34%, vs. S&P500 -0.3%; Underperformed market

(1% event probability)

  • BioNTech stock declined -34% over the last twenty-one trading days (about one month), compared to the broader market (S&P500) which declined by -0.3%
  • A change of -34% or more over twenty-one trading days has a 1% event probability, which has occurred 3 times out of 487 in the last two years.

See our indicative theme of Covid-19 Vaccine stocks which includes U.S.-based pharma and biotech companies.

[9/28/2021] What’s New With BioNTech Stock?

BioNTech (NASDAQ: BNTX), a leader in messenger RNA technology and Pfizer’s Covid-19 vaccine partner, has seen its stock decline by almost 9.4% over the last week (five trading days) and by about 17% over the last month. This compares to the S&P 500 which was up about 2% over the last week. There are likely a couple of factors driving the sell-off in BioNTech stock. Firstly, the FDA’s recent approval of booster Covid-19 shots was limited to certain subgroups of the population, including high-risk individuals and people age 65 years and older, and not for broader use as the markets were likely expecting. Separately, the CEOs of both Pfizer and Moderna recently predicted in separate interviews that the Covid-19 pandemic could be over within about a year, indicating that life would likely come back to normal, reducing demand for Covid-19 vaccines and impacting BioNTech’s revenues.

So is BioNTech stock likely to continue trending lower in the coming days, or is a recovery looking more likely? Based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last two years, there is an 82% chance of a rise in BNTX stock over the next month (twenty-one trading days). See our analysis on BioNTech Chance Of Rise for more details.

So what’s the longer-term outlook like for BioNTech? Although the Covid-19 vaccine business – which is currently the company’s only product – faces uncertainty given the unpredictable nature of the pandemic, BioNTech has a couple of things going for it. The company’s pipeline is heavily focused on oncology, with a total of 21 candidates, 11 of which are in the clinical stages. The company’s BNT131 intratumoral immunotherapy for the treatment of solid tumors was recently moved to human trials after showing a lot of promise in mice. Considering the large pipeline, the positive recent developments, and the fact that cancer drugs are usually very lucrative, there could be some upside for the stock as the company publishes more data readouts on its pipeline.

[8/11/2021] What Drove BioNTech Stock’s Incredible Rise From $80 To $420 This Year?

BioNTech (NASDAQ: BNTX), a leader in messenger RNA technology and Pfizer’s Covid-19 vaccine partner, has seen its stock rally from about $80 at the end of 2020 to levels of almost $420 currently, marking an increase of about 5x. This compares to the S&P 500 which is up by just about 20% over the same period.

The first leg of the rally that happened through the first half of this year was steady, and came as the company and its production partner Pfizer scaled-up distribution of the Covid-19 vaccine, signed new supply agreements, and expanded on existing ones, and reported robust financials (BioNTech’s net margins stood at a solid 53% for the first half of 2021). However, the big surge has come since mid-June, 2021, as the stock rallied from around $200 to levels of close to $420 currently.

There appears to be an increasing realization that Covid-19 will be more difficult to contain than initially thought, even in countries with high vaccination rates, due to the emergence of new virus variants. For example, the seven-day average of Covid-19 cases in the U.S. has risen from around 22k in early July to around 120k currently due to the highly infectious Delta variant of the virus. Cases in highly-inoculated Israel are also up by close to 10x over the last month. Research is also showing that protection provided by Covid-19 vaccines begins to wane after several months.

These developments are making a real case for booster vaccinations and BioNTech is well-positioned to cater to this market, with its mRNA technology which can apparently be more quickly adapted to fight new variants. This could mean that BioNTech’s lucrative Covid-19 vaccine sales are likely to continue into the near future (rather than just being a one-off pandemic product), likely causing investors to re-value the stock higher. Moreover, investors interested in gaining exposure to the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine are more likely to pick BioNTech stock over its partner Pfizer. Although Pfizer’s stock has also fared well, rising by over 30% year-to-date, BioNTech represents a pure-play on the vaccine, unlike Pfizer which has exposure to multiple slower-growing revenue streams.

[7/7/2021] What’s Happening With BioNTech Stock?

BioNTech (NASDAQ: BNTX), a leader in messenger RNA technology and Pfizer’s Covid-19 vaccine partner, has seen its stock decline by about 2% over the last week (five trading days) and also remains down by about 4% over the last month (21 trading days). This compares to the S&P 500 which is up by about 2% over the past month. There are likely a couple of trends driving the declines. Firstly, Israel has reported a drop in the efficacy of the Pfizer-BioNTech Covid-19 vaccine in protecting against infections and symptomatic illness as the highly contagious Delta variant of the novel Coronavirus spreads in the country. However, the shot is still highly effective against protecting against severe illness and hospitalization. Separately, BioNTech’s Covid-19 vaccine rival Novavax published very positive data from its long-delayed U.S. Phase 3 trials, indicating that its shot was over 90% effective overall and 100% effective against moderate and severe disease. The eventual availability of another highly effective shot could put pressure on BioNTech, increasing competition in the Covid-19 vaccine market. So will the declines in BioNTech stock continue? Probably not. According to the Trefis Machine learning engine, which analyzes historical stock price movements in the stock, BNTX has an 84% chance of a rise over the next month. See our analysis BioNTech Stock Chances Of Rise for more details.

We also think that the medium to long-term outlook for BioNTech stock looks good, despite the recent declines. The Covid-19 vaccine has been very lucrative for BioNTech, as it shares gross profits on the vaccine with Pfizer on a 50:50 basis. Over Q1 2021, BioNTech posted revenue of about $2.5 billion, with Net Margins coming in at a solid 55%. However, despite the strong financials, BioNTech stock trades at just 6x projected 2021 earnings. Although the low valuation multiple is partly due to the fact that investors expect Covid-19 vaccine sales to peak in 2021, we think that the decline could be much more gradual than initially anticipated. Increasing concerns surrounding new virus variants will likely result in the need for booster doses, likely helping BioNTech’s vaccine business for a few more years to come. For example, the average analyst estimate for BioNTech’s 2022 EPS has doubled from just $15 three months ago to almost $30 currently. The cash generated from the Covid-19 vaccine over the next few years should help BioNTech significantly bolster its pipeline of other mRNA drugs which includes 14 candidates focused on oncology and vaccine candidates for HIV and tuberculosis.

[6/6/2021] Why BioNTech Stock’s Rally Isn’t Done Yet

Messenger RNA technology leader BioNTech (NASDAQ: BNTX), has seen its stock rally by about 11% over the last week (five trading days) and remains up by almost 21% over the last month. This is well ahead of the S&P 500 which has returned about 2% over the last month. The rally comes as the company’s much sought-after Covid-19 vaccine, developed in partnership with Pfizer, continues to go from strength to strength. Earlier this week the U.S. said that it would donate 500 million doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech shot to low- and middle-income countries through the first half of 2022. Moreover, the vaccine was recently opened up for use in children between the ages of 12 and 15 in the U.S. Separately, governments worldwide have been focusing on securing orders for booster doses of the vaccine to tackle potential new variants of the virus. So will the rally in BioNTech stock continue? It sure looks like it. According to the Trefis Machine learning engine, which analyzes historical stock price movements in the stock, BNTX has a 57% chance of a rise over the next month, after rising by about 21% over the last 21 trading days. See our analysis BioNTech Stock Chances Of Rise for more details.

So what’s the fundamental picture like for BioNTech? The Covid-19 vaccine has been very lucrative for the company as BioNTech shares gross profits on the vaccine with Pfizer on a 50:50 basis. Over Q1 2021, the company posted revenue of about $2.5 billion, with Net Margins coming in at an incredible 55%. However, BioNTech stock trades at just 7x projected 2021 earnings, as the markets expect sales to drop post the pandemic. That said, the cash generated from the Covid-19 vaccine over the next year or two will help BioNTech significantly bolster its pipeline of other mRNA drugs which includes 14 candidates focused on oncology and vaccines candidates for HIV and tuberculosis.

[6/2/2021] Moderna Vs. BioNTech: Is There A Clear Pick?

Messenger RNA technology leaders Moderna and BioNTech have seen their stocks rally by around 75% and 150% respectively year-to-date driven by strong demand for their Covid-19 shots and also as investors see tremendous potential in leveraging mRNA technology beyond Covid, to fight a variety of diseases. So how do the two companies compare, following the big rally?

Our analysis on Moderna Vs. BioNTech has more details on how the financial and valuation metrics for the two companies compare.

Both companies are on an equal footing, more or less, in terms of financial performance. Consensus estimates peg Moderna’s sales at about $18.5 billion this year, while BioNTech is on track to post over $15 billion in sales. Both companies are also likely to post net margins of upward of 50% this year. Moderna stock trades at about 4x projected 2021 revenues, while BioNTech trades at a slightly lower 3.3x projected sales. However, picking between the two companies really comes down to their development pipelines, as Covid-19 vaccine sales are likely to decline meaningfully post 2022, as the pandemic recedes.

With the success of their Covid-19 shots, both companies have plenty of cash to fund their research pipelines in the coming years. Moderna’s development pipeline includes nine vaccines and 13 therapeutic candidates in areas including immuno-oncology and rare diseases. Four of the company’s developments, including its CMV vaccine and personalized cancer vaccine, are in phase 2 trials. BioNtech’s pipeline is heavily focused on oncology (a total of 14 candidates) and the company says that three of its oncology programs were moving into late-stage testing. The company is also working on vaccines for HIV and tuberculosis. Although it’s difficult to say which company’s pipeline could eventually be more valuable, given the uncertain nature of clinical trials, BioNTech’s lower valuation multiple and its oncology-focused pipeline might give it a bit more upside versus Moderna.

[1/6/2021] Moderna Vs. BioNTech: Better Stock To Play mRNA revolution

Messenger RNA or mRNA technology has come of age, with the first two Covid-19 vaccines (Moderna and BioNTech/Pfizer) approved by Western regulators being based on the technology. The technology promises big benefits for drug development, considering the relatively quick development times (the Covid shots were apparently designed in a matter of a few days) with manufacturing also being simpler and more cost-efficient. Boston-based Moderna and Germany’s BioNTech – the two companies behind the first Western Covid shots – are the most prominent names in the mRNA space. Let’s take a closer look at the two company’s Covid vaccines, their financials, future drug pipelines, and relative valuations to find out which of the two stocks could be the better bet for investors.

See our analysis on Moderna Vs. BioNTech: Which MRNA Stock Should You Pick? for more details on how the financial and valuation metrics for the two companies compare.

Covid-19 Vaccine

Both Moderna and BioNTech and its partner Pfizer commenced deliveries of their Covid-19 vaccines last month and it’s safe to assume that the shots will be the biggest driver of their Revenues over the next two years. While both vaccines have proven to be over 90% effective and will require two doses per person, Moderna’s shot is easier to distribute and doesn’t need to be stored at super-cold temperatures, unlike the BioNTech vaccine. BioNTech and Pfizer are targeting production of over 1.3 billion doses in 2021, compared to Moderna which has guided between 600 million to 1 billion doses for the year. However, Moderna is likely to post higher revenues and profits from its vaccine, considering that its shot is more expensive (as much as $37 per dose, versus $19.50 per dose for BioNTech/Pfizer) and also because BioNTech will likely split the revenue with partner Pfizer.

Financials & Relative Valuations

The Covid-19 vaccine will be the first commercial product for both companies, with 2021 being the first full year of sales. The consensus estimates BioNTech’s 2021 Revenue at about $7 billion, while Moderna’s Revenue is estimated to come in at $8.5 billion. Working back from consensus EPS figures, Net Margins for both companies for this year are estimated to stand in the 50% range (although this appears high, in our view). Coming to valuations, BioNTech trades at 3x projected 2021 Revenue while Moderna trades at about 5x 2021 Revenue. Relative to projected earnings, Moderna trades at about 10x 2021 EPS, while BioNTech trades at about 5.5x. While this appears very reasonable for high-growth companies, the bump from the Covid-19 vaccine will be temporary with sales moderating post-2022. Investors will need to look at Moderna and BioNTech pipelines more closely to value them for the long term.

Pipeline

BioNTech’s research pipeline is largely focused on cancer drugs (around 21 of its 27 candidates), while Moderna’s is more diverse, focusing on infectious diseases, vaccines, rare diseases, and cancer. The most advanced candidates for Moderna include an experimental vaccine for cytomegalovirus that is expected to begin phase 3 trials in 2021 and a personalized cancer vaccine mRNA-4157, to be given in combination with Merck’s Keytruda, which is currently in phase 2 of the clinical timeline. [1] BioNTech has one drug in the phase 2 stage – BNT122 that is targeted at treating metastatic melanoma. The company’s other drugs are in the pre-clinical or phase 1 stage. [2]

Although there are many moving parts relating to research pipelines, and it’s difficult to say which company’s pipeline could eventually be more valuable, BioNTech’s lower valuation multiple and its oncology-focused pipeline (cancer drugs are usually very lucrative) could give it more upside potential compared to Moderna. That said, there are risks, considering that the BioNTech pipeline is more concentrated and it’s still too early to tell just how effective mRNA technology is outside of infectious diseases such as Covid-19.

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